You know the mental state you have to be in to break down like Bruce Drennan did?

Jason Donald beating out an infield single to break up a no-hit bid in the top of the 9th inning.

I’m close.

I just sat at the bar and watched the Indians come oh so close to being no hit, nay pitched perfectly against. Armando Galarraga almost found himself in the company of Ubaldo Jimenez, Dallas Braden, and Roy Halladay – all whom have thrown no hitters this season (Braden and Halladay’s were perfect games).

If it weren’t for Jason Donald’s infield single(!) in the top of the 9th, the Tribe would have been on the opening segment of Sports Center. And when I say infield single what I mean is botched call by the umpire. Instead the opening of Sports Center will probably be something about the Flyers winning (they are at the moment). How am I expected to make friends in a new city when I ask them to meet me at the bar that has the MLB package and watch the Tribe game? I would feel better asking these people I barely know for money instead of trying to make friends with them while watching some of the worst offense professional baseball has to offer.

• Fausto Carmona couldn’t have pitched much better than he did tonight. It was the kind of outing that the Indians need to have to compete with Detroit. The Tigers lineup is tough though. Austin Jackson got on base, Miguel Cabrera and the reborn Magglio Ordonez drove in the runs. Sure, there was a little help from Boesch and Damon but you get the point. That’s how Detroit’s offense is going to play you, even when you’re pitching is at it’s best. Galarraga is a pitcher who had a rough ’09 season though (posting a 5.64 ERA), so we  should have seen some fire out of the Indians offense. Instead we didn’t see a hit until the last minute, when it didn’t even matter. After losing his last three consecutive starts it would have been nice to get Fausto (our ace) some run support and take this series from the Tigers on the road.

• Galarraga was also only a couple appearances off the Disabled List coming into this game- it would have been a great game for the Indians to go out and win to try and gain some momentum, win some games. Has the organization given up? I know Many Acta hasn’t (despite the feelings of one of my fellow writers on this staff). I’m not saying the players have either. I’ve been told smart business men don’t hold on to investments that lose money. So either Paul Dolan is an idiot (possibility) or he isn’t bleeding money like he says the team is. We know he isn’t ready to sink any more back into the team either. Especially after saying most of the money lost came from down revenues at the ball park. No one showed up to the games because when Shapiro was in place and the team didn’t overspend on any players to actually win games. Dolan still must have been making money to still be holding onto the team. Now Shapiro 2.0 is in place, Chris Antonetti, and we are just going to keep seeing the same bargain bin mentality that has plagued this team since 2001 when Shapiro took over as GM. If Dolan wanted to win games Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez would still be in Cleveland. Very quickly I came up with a little letter from The Fellas (as Reghi would call us):

Paul Dolan,

Please sell the Cleveland Indians to someone else. Anyone else. And Remember to bring it strong!

~ The Few Indians Fans left.

• I wonder if Dan Gilbert will have any cash left over after the LeBron sweepstakes…

"ARod, your stats look like they could use a pick-me-up. May I be of some service?"

In fact, the coaching he did is valuable testament to the kind of impact managing has on a baseball game and is why the position is so damn important.

In the 7^th inning, down only 1 run to the New York Yankees, Acta made the astute choice to just end the game.

Instead of pitching to Mark Tiexiera, his terrifying .221 AVG and anemic .387 slugging percentage (30 points lower than masher Ichiro). Manny intentionally walked the first baseman to pitch to… Alex Rodriguez.

In 9 at bats this year with the bases loaded, ARod is hitting .556 with 2 HRs and 16 RBIs.

OK, 9 at bats is a pretty small sample to draw any conclusions from. Maybe Acta wasn’t fooled by ARod’s luck this year with the bags full?

Yeah… not the case. In his 14 years in the bigs, the man has hit .350 with 20 HRs and 230 RBI with a .710 slugging percentage with the bases loaded. That’s right; he is only three Grand Slams behind Lou Gehrig for the all time record.

Literally shocked by those numbers, I racked my brain for an ‘all-time’ list- guys I remember being Gods with the bags juiced or guys I heard my father speak reverently of. Once I had my top 5, I checked out the stats on these modern monsters (We don’t have situational stats pre 1974):

Rod Carew: .366 AVG, 5 HR, 177 RBI, .546 SLG

Wade Boggs: .363 AVG, 4 HR, 170 RBI, .480 SLG

Barry Bonds: .376 AVG, 11 HR, 214 RBI, .624 SLG

Manny Ramirez: .333 AVG, 21 HR, 252 RBI, .705 SLG

Pat Tabler: .489 AVG, 2 HR, 108 RBI, .693 SLG

ARod’s stat line seems to edge them all out.

So, just a recap: down 1 run, with 1 out and two guys on in the 7^th, Manny Acta walked a guy to pitch to perhaps the greatest bases loaded hitter of all time. I’m almost speechless. The man makes managing more baffling than a David Blaine special.

Justin, how does your "xFIP" stack up?

This article begins with my boy Dave, the Super 7 Foundation’s 2010 ‘Best Young Chef’ award winner and fellow Lebrontourage columnist, asking me about Tribe starter Justin Masterson: “break him down Z. He K’s dudes but lets up too many hits. And, it’s like he doesn’t trust the fielders.” What’s Masterson’s deal, head case? Get ready for the most complicated statistics (mathematically and theoretically) we’ve used yet (I’ll ease them in) and let’s take a closer look.

Dave’s first observation is that Masterson “K’s dudes.” Indeed he does. At 9.63 K/9 he has the 9th highest rate of strike-outs for any starter in the bigs (min. 40 IP). Masterson is striking out over a batter an inning, which means strike-outs account for 1/3rd of the outs he gets. Thank God, because he isn’t getting many other guy’s out.

When guys aren’t striking out, most are getting on base. Masterson is allowing an average of 11.25 hits per 9 innings pitched (H/9). Which, confirms Dave’s 2nd observation- “dude let’s up too many hits.” Typically, you want your pitchers closer to 8 and hopefully more like 7 H/9.

To exacerbate the problem, Masterson is walking on average 5 batters per 9 innings (BB/K) which gives him the 8th highest walk rate for starting pitchers in the MLB (min. 40 IP). If you combine the two base-runner rates, Masterson has to deal with an average of 1.85 base runners an inning (WHIP). When 34.5% of your runners score, that means you are going to be giving up a lot of runs, thus Masterson’s logically soaring 5.65 ERA.

So what, Masterson’s stats prove he is just a bad pitcher? Not quite.

Dave’s 3rd observation is also true- the man doesn’t trust his fielders. Young strike-out pitchers can often have high walk rates because they struggle to control their diabolically nasty pitches. But Masterson’s walk rate is not a result of his control.

Masterson is throwing 61% of his pitches for strikes. That number is on par with Ubaldo Jimenez (61%), this year’s best starting pitcher so far AND Tim Lincecum (63%), who is widely acknowledged as the best pitched in MLB.

This tells me Masterson is probably putting pitches where he wants (thats too many strikes to be ‘missing the target’ on), but is walking guys because he is ‘nibbling.’ As if that wasn’t enough, his 47% rate of pitches in the strike zone is the exact same as stud Ubaldo Jiminez. In other words, because he doesn’t want to give up hits, he is trying to keep the ball off the plate and away from contact, trying to get more called strikes. When he does want to be in the strike zone, he is throwing fast balls (80% of his pitch selection), trying to get swinging strikes.

As damning evidence of his control, 62% of contact made by hitters off Masterson results in a ground ball. If he doesn’t trust his defense, he is looking to avoid ground balls (they have the highest likelihood of error) and thus looking to avoid contact- again, he wants called strikes. Similarly, Masterson is throwing his slider (a ground ball inducing pitch) 7% less often this season, replacing it with an 8% increase in fastball (a strike-out pitch) use.

So, it’s not control; is this just a case of trust and nerves? At 25 years of age and with only 3 years of previous professional experience, it’s logical that Masterson wouldn’t yet be confident. But, I don’t think this is the case either.

Since a player that performs well in a crucial situation isn’t someone we would consider to have problems with their nerves, let’s consider how ‘clutch’ Masterson is.

By assigning each possible outcome a numeric weight based on its value (I.e a HR is worth 1.00 while a walk is .25) we can asses how much of an asset a player is to their team (for pitchers consider the example that a K is 1.00 while a BB is .15); the higher the number, the more production.

Well, we can also adjust the weight of each play depending on the situation (because baseball loves numbers and people track EVERYTHING). So, a walk with the bases loaded in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th is just as valuable as a home run- both outcome results in a win. By then comparing player scores in ‘clutch’ situations to a players output in regular situations, we can come up with a ‘clutch rating.’

Masterson’s clutch rating is 1.18, meaning he performs better than normal in ‘clutch’ situations. Jimenez and Lincecum rate at .56 and .19 respectively for comparison.

This number isn’t proof Masterson is actually amazing- Masterson isn’t better in tight spots than those guys. Since Masterson’s numbers (WHIP & ERA) are so bad normally, it isn’t saying a lot that he outperforms them. Similarly, with Lincecum and Jimenez pitching nearly flawlessly normally, it is hard to improve when the game is on the line; what’s better than flawless?

So what, Masterson still sucks? No, the number is only valued in this case to address the question of nerves: Masterson pitches better in tight spots than he does normally, which at least suggests that pressure doesn’t get to him and the problem isn’t all in his head.

Then what’s the problem? Why wont he trust the defense?

Simple. They suck.

Let’s start with my favorite stat, BABIP (batting avg. of balls in play). Masterson’s BABIP against is a whopping .399; meaning that contact is resulting in a hit far more often than could typically be expected (avg. is .300). BABIP is a good indicator of batters getting lucky hits- bloopers, tomahawk chops, etc. Or, if historically high (with little variation year to year), that a guy allows too much good contact and isn’t cut to be a MLB pitcher.

But, it’s also a testament to the defense being played. The worse the defense – the fewer balls they get to, more errors made, rate of potential doubles plays turned – the more often contact will result in a hit. It’s simple logic.

By determining (1) the percentage of errors to balls played, (2) balls played to balls hit in a player’s area of responsibility, and (3) the percentage of double plays turned, we can get a remarkably accurate statistical account of what a player offers on defense. Further, we can convert this rating number into an estimated number of runs saved or allowed (awesome, I know). By then dividing this number of runs by 150 (an expected number of games played by the position player) we can determine how many runs that player will cost the team that season.

The Tribe infield:

3B- Johnny Peralta, on pace to cost the team 18.4 runs.

SS- Asdrubal Cabrera, on pace to cost the team 25 runs.

2B- Luis Valbuena, average, will save the team 1 run.

1B- Matt LaPorta, mildly beneficial, will save the team 10 runs.

Since Masterson is inducing grounders 62% of the time, we will focus on the infield as the defense he doesn’t trust. While the team as a whole is below average defensively, ranking 23rd (out of 30) at an estimated 5 runs cost, that’s with the defensive prowess of the OF saving the numbers.

The infield is on pace to cost the Tribe a whopping 32 runs this year and that’s only with guys at their best positions (Luis Valbuena in 4 games at short this year, for example, has performed so poorly that at a 150 game pace he would cost the Indians 114 runs alone).

So, can we blame Masterson for being a bit weary of throwing grounders? It must be nice to be Tim Lincecum, who’s BABIP is just under average, at .285. He receives a marginal benefit against the expected average, which we can account for by the steller Giant’s defense, who is on pace to save the pitching staff 13 runs this year. And, while the Rockies are about even with the Tribe in terms of overall D (expected -4.6 runs this year), their problems exist in the outfield. At least Ubaldo’s infield can field the majority of ground balls and is only like to cost the staff 9 runs.

So what, all that we can say is that we can’t know how good J-Mast is because of the D? I read all that for a simple, ‘his stats are misleading, but I can’t say whether or not he has talent?’ “SCREW YOU TONY!”

Whoa whoa, would I leave you hangin’ like that?

Let’s figure out a way to remove non-pitcher variables from a pitcher’s performance as best we can. Let’s start by identifying what possible outcomes are solely the responsibility of the pitcher: BB, HBP, HR, and Ks. Jhonny Peralta’s defense plays no part in any of those outcomes, they are all on Masterson.

Now, you can argue that the pitcher can control type of contact too- I.e if Masterson throws a sinker, he is taking part in the resulting ground ball (inducing it if you will) and thus ground balls should be considered in any measure of a pitcher. And, similarly, that types of contact have probabilities- I.e I mentioned in the Kearns article that typically line drives fall for hits, around 75% of the time. Thus, we should take the type of contact into consideration when evaluating a pitched.

Well, someone has to field that grounder or catch a fly ball, so I’m leaving any consideration of them out. I want to know what’s happening when ONLY Masterson and the batter are involved.

Before we calculate, let’s go one step further. Home-runs are impacted by lots of variables- the wind that night, the ball park, the humidity, sea level, etc. It seems unfair and inaccurate to base an evaluation of Ubaldo Jimenez on ‘HRs allowed’ since he pitches half his games in Coors Field (2nd easiest place to hit a HR)! And, similarly, that J-Mast’s HR stat will be affected by his pitching in Baltimore (4th easiest), Arlington (7th), and New York (easiest) in any given year.

To neutralize these variables, we can use an average HR to fly-ball ratio. How many fly balls were hit that year, how many resulted in HRs, and thus how often does a fly ball turn into a home run? Since we have Masterson’s fly ball rate, we can figure out how many HRs could be expected from him in a completely neutral setting.

Now, we can take BBs, HBP, Ks, and the neutralized HR stat and predict how many runs these outcomes would result in. Or, a predicted and modified new Earned Run Average (ERA) that isn’t impacted by variables out of the pitcher’s hands. Meaning, we are trying to rate Masterson’s pitching without penalizing him for the Tribe’s D or pitching in offensive ball parks.

I present, ‘xFIP.’

Masterson’s xFIP is 3.60.

That’s a long cry from his 5.65 ERA.

Ubaldo Jimenez’s? 3.51.

So, I’m just saying Masterson’s numbers are a product of a lot more than just his pitching. And, his pitching is a lot better than what his numbers are suggesting. At first glance a standard stat line of 0-4, 5.56 ERA, and 1.875 WHIP in 43 innings is demotion worthy; yet I think Masterson is the best starter the Tribe has, just based on seeing his stuff. Turns out, the numbers suggest it’s not my imagination.

Am I saying J-Mast is as good as Ubaldo or in the same ball park as Lincecum? No.

Am I suggesting that these numbers and the models I use are infallible and completely accurate and solely indicative of true performance? Hardly, if I thought that, or crazier, if I was right, I would have a job running an MLB dynasty team right now.

I’m just playing with models. Attempts to analyze information in a vacuum in an attempt to understand parts better and to make predictions. It’s called Economics and if you’re thinking I’m loony right now for looking into this stuff, consider this: you are trusting your bank, financial advisor, doctor, Chair of the Country’s Federal Bank, the military, your utilities providers, etc with doing the exact same thing to analyze choices. Meanwhile, I’m asking models for a fun and risk-less shot at some insight into a game I love; they have to be worth at least that if they are trusted with so much more.

Finally, does this mean Masterson can be expected to pitch like Jimenez is now, in the near future? Probably not. A) The defense isn’t getting better anytime soon and B) He is only 25 and this is really his first season as a big league starter (let alone a keystone to a staff), you have to learn the craft of pitching and learn the hitters; plus, C) He has to pitch in the AL.

But, I do think the Tribe got some real talent from Boston here. Masterson’s ability to strike-guys out is fantastic and his stuff is still raw. Though a 4th pitch would be nice, he will improve drastically if he continues to develop his change and slider- 10+ K/9 is no fantasy. That means regardless of run support or defense, he will pitch the Tribe to some victories.

Don’t give up on him yet.

Fingers crossed, if he can stay healthy and avoid being poisoned too much by Manny Acta, in the long run he just might be the next staff Ace that team Shapiro/Antonetti can trade away.

If you combine Kearns’s 2003 and 2004 platoon abbreviated seasons as a young player in the bigs, his numbers from 2003-2007 give us four 450+ AB seasons of remarkably good data to compare his 2010 season to.

03-04: 146 GP, 24 HR, .247 AVG, .50 BB/K, 102 wRC+, .298 BABIP

05: 112 GP, 18 HR, .240 AVG, .45 BB/K, 107 wRC+, .281 BABIP

06: 150 GP, 24 HR, .264 AVG, .56 BB/K, 118 wRC+. .308 BABIP

07: 161 GP, 16 HR, .266 AVG, .67 BB/K, 107 wRC+, .299 BABIP

Making his average year something like:

142 GP, 20 HR, .258 AVG, .54 BB/K, 108 wRC+, .296 BABIP

The similarity of the sample data and sensationally average .296 BABIP tells us that this is a very accurate indicator of what could be expected of Austin Kearns in his prime. He wasn’t lucky, he wasn’t sporadic, and he wasn’t under-performing.

So far in 2010, Kearns’s stats are spectacular:

27 GP, 3 HR, .327 AVG, .43 BB/K, 161 wRC+, .439 BABIP

The .327 AVG is the most striking number in his line and frankly, is bound to come down. The .439 AVG on Balls in Play indicates that Kearns is getting a lot of ‘lucky’ hits- those ‘dying quails’ and ‘seeing eye grounders’ that Crash Davis so romantically waxes poetic about in Bull Durham.

So what should we be expecting? Well, as young man with no good or bad luck, Kearns averaged .258. But, maybe Kearns has learned a little something in his old age. His strike-out rate is actually up and his walk rate hasn’t budged. Typically, this would indicate that Kearns hasn’t developed a more refined eye and I would be warning against a return to the .206 AVG Kearns produced in the 08 and 09 injury plagued years in Washington.

But, Kearns has made strides elsewhere. His batting eye might not be more selective, but it looks like he is seeing the ball better. Yes, he is swinging at 8% more pitches out of the strike-zone but he is hitting them. His contact rate on pitches out of the zone is up 12%. Common knowledge says swinging at bad pitches leads to bad stats, but what about Vlad Guerrero? He made a living on junk pitches.

Kearns isn’t making contact with bad pitches that results in weak outs, like Grady Sizemore. Kearns’s contact is actually improving. His line drive rate is up 10%, his ground ball rate has stayed constant, and this has resulted in a dip of 10% in his fly ball rate. Since his home run to fly ball ratio (18.8%) is consistent with his career average, we see that the fly balls Kearns is losing, were the easy fly balls to outfielders. So, while Kearns is going out of the zone a bit more, he is seeing these pitches and drilling them.

Even the anemic .206 AVG Kearns posted over the last two seasons is misleading. His BABIP was an unlucky .254, meaning that if it was closer to the average .300, he would have been right around an expected .245 AVG.

What this suggests to me, is that Kearns has taken the last couple of years to work on his hitting. He hasn’t become a more patient hitter in his old age, but it looks like he is identifying and hitting pitches better. I love the increase in line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time. Think frozen rope over the 2nd Baseman’s head.

Kearns is lucky, but we could definitely be looking at a rejuvenated, productive, and lasting bat for the rest of the season from him.

Tribe fans are thinking: “Man, must be nice…”

They might look alike, but Russell from "Up" could still out-manage Manny Acta

Seriously, even in the years of disorder, the year’s with no plan, at least the Browns had some logical coach candidates.

Cooper and Butch were the Urban Meyers, the Steve Spurriers of the late 90s. College coaches just don’t always translate, but it’s worth a shot. Romeo was Savage’s guy and Romeo had pedigree- a Bellichek product; and on the defensive side of the ball no less! Mangenious, same idea: Bellichek tree, rising coach candidate, even some good work with the Jets. Worth a shot.

The Tribe coaching situation starts off fine, with Chuck Manual, clearly a guy that could coach- sometimes it just takes a second time around to make it happen. What about Shapiro’s guy- try #2? The Wedge. Ok, understandable, Shapiro liked him (he gets one, “my guy” flier) and he was a catcher, nice. Almost got us there, but didn’t work out.

So where we going next, what logical will we try out: The hyped up-and-coming ex-player (catcher) ala Joe Girardi or A.J Hinch, (or the original, Mike Sciosia)? The safe and exciting hire, a proven legend ala Joe Torre or Jim Leyland (catchers), Bobby Cox, and Tony LaRussa (AKA ‘the Cowher option’ for the Browns)? Bring back a successful, old team legend (Mike Hargrove) ala Cito Gaston?

No.

Buck the logic. Let’s go with the guy that never cracked the bigs. Who didn’t catch. Who was a product of a dysfunctional and unsuccessful Willy Randolph coaching tree. Who had 3 ATROCIOUS seasons in Washington coaching a young team that looks a lot like the Tribe, and who didn’t even have some years off to learn from his mistakes (ala Terry Francona). Hell, who is a product of a fairly unsuccessful Houston organization.

We hired a guy that was canned, for not developing young players (Tribe job description), by the worst team in baseball? What the…

Seriously, at least the Browns didn’t decide to hire Dick Juron.

Manny Acta’s one angle of appeal is his interest in Sabermetrics. Which would be a plus for a GM like Theo Epstein or Billy Beane who are building teams based on numbers. But the Tribe is a scouting based organization that haphazardly dips into Sabermetrics when they don’t have a kid they like to bring up (see: the Jason Michaels/David Dellucci platoon). So our management chooses a coach that doesn’t even mesh with the ‘scout first’ philosophy? Well, maybe it’s situational. What did Acta do with young guys?

Let’s see: he didn’t turn around talented, bad-character guys like Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes; He didn’t use talented, under the radar guys, like Nyjer Morgan; Star, Jordan Zimmerman, got shipped back DOWN (Matt Laporta anyone?). What DID Acta do?

He lost: In 3 years he had a .385 winning% (158 wins to 252 losses). His teams hit for a .255 average, scored an average of 674 runs, and hit an average of 132 home runs. His pitchers had a 3 year ERA of 4.74 and WHIP of 1.406. These stats are on par with the Royals and with them even the Royals managed a .430 winning percentage over the span in a tougher division and in a much tougher league.

More disheartening? In 2009, Acta’s Nationals went 26-61, a .298 winning%. With the same team, in the same season, after taking over, Jim Riggleman coached the team to a 33-42 record, a .440 winning%. Now, with the meager additions of Ivan Rodruigez and Livan Hernandez, Riggleman has the Nats in 2nd place in the division and a 20-18 record.

No typos. The Nat’s fired Manny Acta and become a .500% team with two guys I would have screamed about if the Tribe added them.

What’s the plan? Keep trading Cy Young pitchers and cornerstones of the team, like V-Mart? We haven’t even re-loaded, which is typically what happens for small market clubs after a ‘run’ (see: 1997, Jim Leyland coached, evil Marlins). I want to remind you, Cy Youngs typically are worth top prospects (remember the 90s? Schilling? Colon?), not under-performing ones, Carlos Carrasco. The defending World Series champs kept J.J Happ and Kyle Drabek. And, what did it turn out Cliff Lee was worth? Roy Halladay.

I can’t even give Phil a ‘tight situation pass.’ It wasn’t an Albert Bell or Man-Ram situation. Lee had another year on the contract. You don’t think someone’s going to want him for the post season this year to beat the Yanks or Phills? No, we wanted Lou Marson. How better to crappily plug a hole until Santana wasn’t a Super 2 anymore. Nice.

I’ve tried to give Phil’s rebuilding and Manny Acta a shot. Any disdain at the start of the season would seem like wild, speculative, ‘post NFL draft like’ speculation. You got to see the guys play. We have.

So, back to the plan: we call up Carlos Santana and him and Grady and Choo waste away on a Triple A club until we trade them too? We pray LaPorta is for real and will show up soon, giving us 5 big leagers (Masterson has talent)? Maybe Fausto is an Ace? Oh boy.

Do we really like what Shapiro has mapped out so far? Maybe he’s not the guy. I think I know Acta isn’t.

I’ll say it again, what’s the real plan?

So many different emotions are expressed toward your fantasy teams on Mondays. If you are like me you usually have distain toward most players on your squad. This guy didn’t show up and that guy blew it- the accusations fly left and right. I won’t get into the depth at which I analyze all the available players early early every Monday morning but lets put it like this, fellas, if this were Fantasy Island I would be Ricardo Montalban.

1B – Aubrey Huff – SF –  4 HR/18 RBI/ .279 BA

First base has been a very deep position this year so chances are your team doesn’t need one but if you do Huff can prove to be solid enough to hold his own. Along with the numbers above he has 20 runs and has a low strikeout total- 18 (if your league plays with K’s). Only owned in 16% of Yahoo! leagues.

2B -Adam Kennedy – Wash. –  2 HR/12 RBI/ .245 BA

The numbers above may not impress but Kennedy gets my vote for pick up of the week. Not only is he eligible at 2B but at 1B and 3B as well. He is in the midst of a 9 game hit streak and, like times in ’09, you should get on board with Kennedy ASAP because this streak could end just as soon as it began. Only owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues.

3B – David Freese – STL –  3 HR/ 22 RBI/ .306 BA

People continue to sleep on Freese’s production but unless you have a top 10 third baseman, there is no reason why you shouldn’t consider him.  He is going to continue to see RBI chances while batting behind Holliday and Pujols so unless you are desperate for home runs, Freese should be your guy. Owned in 47% of Yahoo! Leagues.

SS – Juan Uribe - SF -   4 HR/ 23 RBI/ .272

The combination of injuries for the Giants and, more immediately, Uribe’s hot bat should be more than enough reason he should see playing time on your team in the near future. He is another multi position guy- eligible at 2B and 3B- and is batting .320 in his last 25 at bats. He’s been doing it with some pop, 18 runs driven in over the last month. Only owned in 50% of Yahoo! leagues.

OF – Austin Kearns – CLE –  3 HR/ 20 RBI/ .330 BA

No one knows how bad the Indians offense has been struggling better than I do but Kearns has been a stand out to say the least. He is batting .342 with 19 of his 20 RBIs in the last month. Only owned in 11% of Yahoo! Leagues.

SP – Mike Leake – CIN –   4-0/ 33 K/ 3.09 ERA

Anyone who tells me they couldn’t use another starter is a liar. Especially when it comes to one that has been as good as Leake. He’s posted a 3.27 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in the last month, both without losing a game so get on board with this 22 year old before he starts flying too close to the sun. Only owned in 29% of Yahoo! leagues.

RP  - Jose Contreras – PHI –   2-1/ 18 K/ 0.68 ERA

This name has made fantasy managers cringe for the last couple years but he might be able to win you over this time around. As a reliever for the Phillies this season Contreras has been great and a big reason is because he has cut way back on the walks. He has a 9.0 K/BB ratio so far this season and has just been named the Phillies closer. My guess is Brad Lidge has an appointment with the glue factory. Only owned in 31% of Yahoo! leagues.

~ Dave K

Wait... This is the wrong Carlos Santana. Nvm.

No, I’m not an insider and have no tips from Shapiro or Carlos himself about an impending call-up, but I don’t need to be. This isn’t a baseball question, instead, like most things in life, it’s an economics question.

Let me explain.

Carlos is MASHING in Columbus. Through 35 games, he stat line is a mouth watering:

.317 AVG, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB, 23 Ks to 23 BBs, .438 OBP, .542 SLG

There is no reason to think this is just a hot start; last year at Akron, Santana put up an All-Star line:

.290 AVG, 23 HR, 97 RBI, 2 SB, 83 Ks to 90 BBs, .413 OBP, .530 SLG

So what’s holding Santana back? At 24, he isn’t too young. Is it the competition?

Lou Marson: .200 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 21 Ks, 7 BBs, .277 OBP, .253 SLG

Mike Redmond: .250 AVG, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 6 Ks, 2 BBs, .308 OBP, .361 SLG

That’s an emphatic NO. Is it his defense? Well, his defense isn’t stellar yet, but coaches say he has made strides in the last year and a half. Besides, defense didn’t keep the Tribe from throwing Victor Martinez behind the plate. No my friends, he isn’t up because of the nuances of MLB arbitration.

The MLB rule on arbitration is as follows: “Players who have at least three years, but fewer than six, of Major League service time, are eligible to file for arbitration.” Seemingly, this rule has nothing to do with rookies, it’s a way to compensate young veterans in the MLB playing on rookie contracts. Well, there is a loop hole called “Super 2 Players.”

“Super 2s” are the top 17 percent of players, based on service time, with at least two but fewer than three years of service. The rule states that a player must have at least 86 days of service in the immediately preceding season to qualify for this status. Typically, the cut-off for the top 17 percent has been around two years, 130 days of total service, though the days fluctuate from year to year.

So, the reason Carlos Santana hasn’t been mashing for the Tribe this season, is to avoid making him a Super 2 player. Should we hang Shapiro for holding back on us? Maybe not. If Carlos was already in the bigs and playing like we all want him to (Pujols behind the plate… we can dream), then he would be up for a big pay day as early as the end of 2012. How big?

Well, Ryan Howard was awarded 10$ million in his first bid for arbitration and Tim Lincecum was likely to get the 13$ million he asked for that forced the Giants to sign him to an extension. Do you think the Dolans are doling out that kind of money? I didn’t think so.

Now, I’m tired of seeing Tribe stars leave town due to financial restraints, so in this situation I am going to give Shapiro a pat on the back. But, back to the issue at hand, Carlos is coming.

Typically, the Super 2 cutoff date is middle May. A look back to 2007 will show you what I’m talking about. Tim Lincecum was called up May 7; Mark Reynolds May 16; and Ryan Braun May 25^th. Lincecum was the only player in that class to be eligible for Super 2, the cut off date was May 14.

So, as the second half of May rolls around, start lining up tickets and getting excited again Tribe fans. Carlos Santana is about to shake his financial constraints and get his shot in the Show. With the way the Tribe is playing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him by the end of the month. At the latest, we are looking at an All-Star break call up just because it’s an easy time to deal with the logistics and give the kid a fresh start.

But, one thing is for sure, The Prince is coming to Cleveland.

…

- Tony Z

• Justin Masterson, SP- Before getting torched for seven runs in four innings yesterday (4/25) by the Oakland Athletics, Masterson bolstered 20 strikeouts through 15 innings. If you are looking for cheap Ks in a Roto-league or need a boost in the K category late in the week, Masterson should be atop you ‘watch list’.

• Fausto Carmona, SP- Though his strike out numbers aren’t anywhere near Masterson’s, he is the winning-most pitcher on the Indians staff right now with 3 wins and has an ERA cruising around 2.95. Control has always been Fausto’s issue and as long as he is striking out more people then he is walking (12:6 in his last 3 starts) he should be a safe play for 6+ innings without blowing up your ERA for the week.

• Mitch Talbot, SP- I’m not saying that Talbot is pick-up worthy right now but he is coming off of back-to-back starts in which he went the distance against the White Sox with no walks and a two hit effort through six innings in a win over the Twins. If he can keep getting run support in his starts, Talbot can be a solid fantasy option around the All Star break.

• Chris Perez, RP- Kerry Wood still doesn’t have a time table set for his return so Chris Perez is still the man who gets the ball in the ninth. While control will always be an issue with Perez, he has not given up a run in his last five appearances and is looking very strong against the Tribe’s divisional rival: the Chicago White Sox- who Perez has picked up all 4 of his saves against (3.2 innings pitched, 3:1 K/BB).

• Jensen Lewis, RP- Depending on the number of statistical categories you play with in your league, Jensen Lewis probably doesn’t even land on your radar, but if you are like me random relievers can impact the outcome of your week. Middle relievers have been lost in the fantasy world but they can contribute to your Holds and K/BB categories if you play with them. With a line of-  7.2 IP/2 W/1.17 ERA/ 2.33 K/BB- Lewis is becoming the go-to reliever when the Indians have a lead.

Now I’d like to take a break from the fantasy world for a minute to discuss something that is shouting out to me from the Indians 8-10 record so far this year:

• I know it is as aparent to Many Acta as it is to us in Tribe nation, Shin-Soo Choo sets the pace for the Tribe offense.
• Choo’s on base numbers directly correlate with their wins and losses so far this season. Choo has had 13 of his 18 strikeouts in Tribe losses and has 9 of his 13 walks is Tribe victories.
• He is leading the team with a .313 batting average, 4 homeruns and 13 runs batted in so its hard to ask for more from him at this point but it seems that with the rise and fall of Shin-Soo Choo will directly correlate with the rise and fall of the Indians offense and the Indians in general.

- Dave

Final Thoughts

• Coming up next: The Rangers. The Indians posted an abysmal 1-8 record against Texas last year. Carmona, who is the Opening Day starter, has never gotten a win against the Rangers at home in 6 opportunities.

• While the power stroke may never return, Travis Hafner is still proving he can be productive- driving in 3 runs in his last 3 games.

• Grady sat out the last game of the Detroit series with a bad back and he is expected to miss the home opener on Monday as well.

• Carlos Santana hit his 4th home run in as many games for the AAA Clippers on Sunday. Just one step closer to joining the big league team.

- Dave